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HEALTH CHECK · WEEK 3 · SATURDAY

Week 3 Health Check: Saturday Final Statuses and the Weekend Pivot Board

The red tag is only the beginning. This board separates confirmed status, observed practice, unresolved workload and the exact move that preserves a startable lineup.

Week 3 Health Check: Puka Nacua doubtful, Nico Collins out, Brock Bowers and Zay Flowers questionable, Sam Darnold cleared

Use the decision board below to protect an eligible replacement. Official status, practice participation and projected workload are different facts. Missing reports remain unknown. Thursday players have already played and are no longer Week 3 pivots.

01

Immediate Decision Board

Player / issueWhat is knownExact actionNext checkpointConfidence
Puka NacuaDOUBTFUL Sunday nightSit in planning / Hold; secure a healthy replacementOfficial upgrade or Sunday inactivesHigh on replacement planning
Nico CollinsOUT · hamstringSit / Hold; no Week 3 start branchNext official practice updateHigh
Jonah ColemanOUT · ankleSit / Drop in standard redraft; deep and dynasty benches may holdWeek 4 practice reportHigh on Week 3 absence
Chig OkonkwoOUT · hamstringSit / Drop in standard redraft; hold only where TE depth has valueWeek 4 practice reportHigh on Week 3 absence
Brock BowersQUESTIONABLE · knee; Friday DNPMonitor; preserve a healthy TE pivotSunday inactives and workload reportLow on workload
Zay FlowersQUESTIONABLE · hamstring; Friday LPMonitor; keep a healthy receiver availableSunday inactives and workload reportModerate
Sam DarnoldCleared FridayStart if appropriate in Superflex; no Drew Lock pivotSunday early lockHigh on availability
Rico Dowdle / Jaylen WarrenDowdle OUT; Warren ACTIVESit Dowdle / Hold; Start Warren where roster fit warrantsSunday early inactivesHigh on status; low on distribution
Tony Pollard / Tyjae SpearsPollard cleared; Spears ACTIVEHold; Pollard usable; Singleton remains conditional stashSunday early inactivesModerate
Aaron Jones Sr.Friday FP; no game designationStart if roster fit; Dallas/Claiborne remain contingenciesSunday late inactivesHigh on availability
Caleb Williams / Tyson BagentWilliams OUT; Bagent QUESTIONABLE after Saturday FPSit/Hold Williams; use a healthy Sunday QB; Bagent is Superflex-only if confirmed starterMonday inactivesHigh on Williams; moderate on Bagent
Dallas Goedert / DeVonta SmithGoedert OUT; Smith clearedSit/Hold Goedert; Start Smith; Ferguson before an unconfirmed Ertz roleEagles elevation and Monday inactivesHigh on status
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02

Saturday Final Report and Thursday Record

Saturday additions: Denver ruled running back Jonah Coleman out with an ankle injury. Washington ruled tight end Chig Okonkwo out with a hamstring injury. San Francisco ruled Demarcus Robinson out and listed Mike Evans questionable; Denver listed Marvin Mims Jr. questionable; Los Angeles listed Colby Parkinson questionable. Those labels change contingency planning, not target ownership by decree. Confirmed absences are zeroed; doubtful and questionable players keep conditional branches until official inactives.

Weather checkpoint: the current Denver forecast includes a thunderstorm window near the Sunday-night pregame period. That is a timing risk to monitor, not a justified yardage or scoring penalty at this cutoff. Chicago’s Monday forecast is currently clear. Recheck venue-level wind, precipitation and any delay guidance before the late locks.

Thursday record, not a remaining Week 3 start recommendation: Green Bay ruled Jayden Reed out with a neck injury, and starting guard Aaron Banks is also out. Atlanta cleared Michael Penix Jr. to start; Tua Tagovailoa is available as the backup. The Green Bay forecast is dry and cool, so weather does not create a separate projection penalty.

Projection correction: The earlier 40%/20% route transfer was not defensible. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden already share the field; Reed’s routes cannot simply be added to both players without checking team dropbacks. The Week 2 official gamebook recorded Watson with 11 targets and Golden with six. This is the evidence for Watson’s lead target projection, not a claim that a depth-chart label alone determines fantasy rank.

Corrected team model: With approximately 29.14 attempts and 34 dropbacks, Watson gets nine targets/31 routes, Golden seven/30, Tucker Kraft 6.5/28, the three backs 3.7 targets and other receivers/tight ends 1.8. The 28 targeted throws leave room for untargeted attempts. Simultaneous routes are not mutually exclusive target shares. Watson projects 5.5 catches/72 yards/0.43 TD; Golden 4.4/57/0.30; Kraft 4.5/52/0.39. Including inherited minor rushing, they produce 12.72, 9.88 and 9.79 half-PPR points.

Backfield: MarShawn Lloyd’s 16 Week 2 snaps and lost fumble do not support a secure lead role. The corrected forecast is Kaleb Johnson 10 carries, Lloyd seven and Chris Brooks four, with 0.7/1.5/1.5 targets respectively. These are uncertain ranges, not promises of goal-line or two-minute ownership. Lloyd becomes RB52, a hold/sit in ordinary formats; Johnson is RB47. A permanent benching was not verified. Kraft remains TE5 with a meaningful middle-field/red-zone role.

Projection detail: The updated workbook records the revised statistical inputs and point effects. These projections use pregame evidence only. Hold Reed for Week 4 information; the temporary opportunity is not a permanent ROS promotion.

03

Receiver Decisions: Confirmed Absence Versus Uncertain Workload

Puka Nacua: Doubtful remains the official designation. Sit in planning and hold; use IR only if eligible. The Nacua-out, Colby Parkinson-active case projects Davante Adams at WR3 / 17.49 points and Terrance Ferguson at TE13 / 7.86 points. Parkinson is questionable; complete active/out branches are retained. An official Nacua upgrade and a normal-workload report would reopen his start case.

Nico Collins: Inactive. Sit and hold. The rebuilt Houston allocation gives Dalton Schultz 9.8 targets and 13.62 points (TE2); Jaylin Noel and Kayshon Boutte remain deeper receiver options. This is projected distribution, not automatic target inheritance.

Zay Flowers: Questionable. The selected if-active estimate is WR58 at 6.38 points with a limited route assumption. Prefer a healthy established receiver; monitor late inactives and restrictions. Full-role and out alternatives are modeled. Rashod Bateman gains if Flowers sits, but a rostered healthy option may still project better.

Additional receiver warnings: Michael Pittman Jr., DJ Moore, Keon Coleman and Jalen Coker are active for early games. Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Legette are inactive; sit them. Mike Evans, Marvin Mims Jr. and other later questionable players still require their own inactive checks. Andrei Iosivas and Caleb Douglas remain unavailable.

04

Running Backs: Clearance Does Not Grant Every Role

Pittsburgh: Jaylen Warren and Michael Pittman Jr. are active. Rico Dowdle and Eli Heidenreich are inactive. Warren projects 17.54 points (RB8); start where that fits your roster. His carries, receiving and scoring roles are modeled separately; active does not guarantee every backfield touch.

Tennessee: Tony Pollard has no game designation; Tyjae Spears is active after a questionable designation. Pollard is usable when he fits your lineup. Nicholas Singleton remains a contingency stash, not a confirmed lead back. A Spears absence can create work without assigning all receiving or goal-line opportunities to one player. The selected active Spears branch is included in the verified board.

Minnesota: Aaron Jones Sr. practiced fully Friday and has no game designation. Start where roster fit warrants; Demond Claiborne and DeeJay Dallas remain contingency holds rather than injury-driven automatic starts. Jordan Mason remains an IR hold where eligible. Travis Etienne Jr. also practiced fully without a game designation for New Orleans.

Denver: Jonah Coleman is out. His Week 3 play probability and expected points are zero, so RB44 → unranked, down, versus Friday September 25 at 3:59 PM CT. J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey carry no game designation, but Coleman’s absence alone does not establish their early-down, receiving, two-minute or goal-line split. Coleman is a sit and a standard-redraft drop; deeper and dynasty benches can hold if the roster cost is low. Dobbins is RB28 / 9.68 points and Harvey RB38 / 7.91 points. Their shared-game sample supports different rushing and receiving roles; scoring-role confidence remains low.

Other pending cases: Jaylen Wright is inactive; sit him. Do not treat an active designation as a full-role guarantee where the player carried a Friday limitation.

05

Quarterback, Tight End and Monday Contingencies

Sam Darnold: Active for the early game; Drew Lock is not the planned starter. Darnold is QB29 at 12.07 points in the completed model. Mainly a Superflex consideration; compare healthy alternatives.

Baker Mayfield: Full Friday after illness, with no game designation. The existing streaming recommendation remains. Jameis Winston remains a risky Superflex fallback, not a must-start in one-QB leagues. Jaxson Dart is a redraft drop and dynasty hold/IR where eligible.

Brock Bowers: Questionable after a Friday DNP. The selected limited-return case is TE10 at 8.65 points if active. Hold and monitor; prefer a healthy alternative when a limited role is reported. Michael Mayer is a direct contingency only if active, while Terrance Ferguson can supply a later option where available. Confirm both players' eligibility and game windows before waiting. Charlie Kolar and Mason Taylor are out and are not emergency replacements.

Washington: Chig Okonkwo is out with a hamstring injury, so TE29 → unranked, down, versus Friday September 25 at 3:59 PM CT. Sit him and drop him in standard redraft leagues unless tight-end depth is unusually valuable. Jayden Daniels is also out. The rebuilt Washington tree includes both absences; use the Sunday board for the resulting receiver and tight-end order.

Chicago: Caleb Williams is officially out. Sit him for Week 3 and hold him in redraft. Tyson Bagent returned to a full Saturday practice but remains questionable; Case Keenum is the alternate starter. Use a healthy Sunday quarterback in 1QB leagues. In Superflex, Bagent is only a conditional QB2 after Chicago confirms he is active and starting. Retain caution on Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland; their current Sunday projections use a conditional Bagent-start branch.

Philadelphia: Dallas Goedert is out; sit and hold him. DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley are cleared and remain starts on their existing merits. Zach Ertz is a possible practice-squad elevation, not a confirmed active workload. Prefer Dalton Schultz where available, with Terrance Ferguson a later alternative. Philadelphia’s active/out scenarios now pass the workload and scoring review.

06

Ordered Late-Window Pivot Board

DecisionBest branchLimited branchOut branchRoster mechanic
Puka Nacua · Sunday nightStart a healthy rostered replacementOnly reopen after an official upgrade and clear full-role expectationHold; use IR only if eligibleSecure the replacement before its own lock
Zay Flowers · Sunday 3:25 PM CTActive with normal role: WR3/Flex considerationLimited role: prefer a healthy optionRashod Bateman if Flowers sits and Bateman is activeReserve an eligible late receiver before earlier games lock
Brock Bowers · Sunday 3:25 PM CTActive with normal role: start considerationLimited role: compare a healthy TE; no automatic TE2 callMichael Mayer if active; Terrance Ferguson later if availableUse only an unlocked TE as a new fallback
Marvin Mims Jr. · Sunday nightActive with normal role: deep-league Flex onlyLimited role: sitSit; do not chase the late windowUse a healthy earlier receiver unless you have a true late pivot
Sam Darnold · Sunday noon CTCleared; Superflex optionNo injury contingency required at this cutoffDrew Lock is not the planned starterDecision closes with the Sunday early window
Tyson Bagent · Monday 7:15 PM CTActive starter: Superflex-only considerationActive backup: sitCase Keenum starts if Bagent is outDo not wait in 1QB; preserve a Monday QB only in Superflex
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07

Ranking Record and Saturday Availability Changes

PlayerPrevious → newDirection / horizonComparisonPoint effect
Nico CollinsWR65 → unrankedDown · Week 3Sep. 24 · 7:40 PM CT4.71 → 0.00
Rico DowdleRB29 → unrankedDown · Week 3Sep. 24 · 7:40 PM CT8.62 → 0.00
Andrei IosivasWR72 → unrankedDown · Week 3Sep. 24 · 7:40 PM CT4.33 → 0.00
Charlie KolarTE30 → unrankedDown · Week 3Sep. 24 · 7:40 PM CT4.79 → 0.00
Caleb DouglasWR89 → unrankedDown · Week 3Sep. 24 · 7:40 PM CT3.28 → 0.00
Jonah ColemanRB44 → unrankedDown · Week 3Sep. 25 · 3:59 PM CT6.03 → 0.00
Chig OkonkwoTE29 → unrankedDown · Week 3Sep. 25 · 3:59 PM CT4.85 → 0.00
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Conditional active-game stat lines are preserved for audit; confirmed OUT probabilities and expected points are zero. Other players can rise incidentally when an unavailable player is removed, with no change to their statistical projection. The complete ordinal change log identifies those moves. Doubtful and questionable updates do not carry invented numerical probabilities. No ROS ranking changed. The new Sunday FantasyPros version 1 replaces the historical upload files.

Prior Thursday projection correction history
PlayerPrevious → newHorizon / comparisonProjectionReason
Christian WatsonWR11 → WR5 · upWeek 3 vs. Thu 1:18 PM CT11.55 → 12.72Workload model correction
Matthew GoldenWR7 → WR19 · downWeek 3 vs. Thu 1:18 PM CT12.23 → 9.88Workload model correction
Tucker KraftTE5 → TE5 · unchangedWeek 3 vs. Thu 1:18 PM CT9.77 → 9.79Workload model correction
MarShawn LloydRB31 → RB52 · downWeek 3 vs. Thu 1:18 PM CT8.03 → 5.10Workload model correction
Kaleb JohnsonRB59 → RB47 · upWeek 3 vs. Thu 1:18 PM CT3.89 → 5.82Workload model correction
Jameis WinstonQB12 → QB29 · downWeek 3 vs. Thu 1:18 PM CT16.03 → 11.96See decision branches below
Rome OdunzeWR15 → WR30 · downWeek 3 vs. Thu 1:18 PM CT10.71 → 8.54See decision branches below
Luther Burden IIIWR23 → WR37 · downWeek 3 vs. Thu 1:18 PM CT9.61 → 7.33See decision branches below
Colston LovelandTE7 → TE15 · downWeek 3 vs. Thu 1:18 PM CT9.53 → 7.64See decision branches below
Puka NacuaWR24 → WR80 · downWeek 3 vs. Thu 1:18 PM CT9.43 → 3.80See decision branches below
Davante AdamsWR20 → WR9 · upWeek 3 vs. Thu 1:18 PM CT10.05 → 11.90See decision branches below
Terrance FergusonTE12 → TE9 · upWeek 3 vs. Thu 1:18 PM CT7.94 → 9.00See decision branches below
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The best pivot is the one that stays eligible

Keep uncertain late players in Flex, reserve a same-game or later alternative, and refuse to turn an optimistic quote into a full workload. Official availability and workload can change the branch; they should not change the decision process.

Open the updated Week 3 ACE Rankings →
Open Roster Triage →

Sunday Final Call sources added: Chicago Bears on Caleb Williams and the Bagent/Keenum branch; Philadelphia Eagles final report. Sunday cutoff: September 27, 7:15 AM CT.

Saturday sources: NFL official Week 3 injury report; NFL on Puka Nacua; Denver final report; official team reports linked below; and the Fantasy Football Brief Week 3 auditable projection workbook. Saturday cutoff: September 26, 9:06 AM CT. Friday and prior evidence: Houston; Pittsburgh; Las Vegas; Baltimore; Tennessee; Minnesota; Tampa Bay; Buffalo; Carolina; Cincinnati; Chargers; Packers–Jets official Week 2 gamebook; Lloyd snap report; Bears report; Giants confirmation. Weather is a forecast checkpoint, not a medical or role fact. Workload ranges, play probabilities and fantasy actions are original ACE analysis. This is fantasy analysis, not medical advice.